Statistics
Just came across this and thought you'd be delighted to think about it.
While nothing is more uncertain than the duration of a single life, nothing is more certain than the average duration of a thousand lives. Elizur Wright (1804 - 1885)
Duncan Williamson
World Cup Fun
Treat yourself to a little bit of World Cup fun by going here and clicking on the link ... you know you want to.
Duncan's pdf files' pageDuncan Williamson
Book review: the undercover economist
I ahve reviewed another business type book, The Undercover Economist by Tim Harford this time. You can find my review of it by clicking
here.
Duncan Williamson
Gas Flares
You might not have heard about gas flares: you need to.
This is not a brown rice and sandals call for us all to shun the internal combustion engine and berate the USA for their failure to ratify the Kyoto treaty. It's a serious problem, however.
Download the PDF file that I have put together for you: follow the links, listen to a podcast ... for all our sakes, this is something that can be and has to be stopped. Go to
my PDFs page on www.duncanwil.co.uk, click on the Gas Flaring link on the menu and read all about it!
Duncan Williamson
Tesco Touts Tellies ... Terribly
So the latest thing in being a couch potato is to sit yourself in front of a High Definition (HD) television and live and breathe the most fantastic resolution on screen there's ever been.
That means the latest thing for a television retailer to do is to sell HD televisions.
So, Tesco sells tellies and since I don't think I've watched an HD telly yet, I strolled down to that part of the Abingdon Tesco hypermarket and watched one for 30 seconds or so. That's the time it took me to realise that buying an HD telly was either a complete waste of money or that Tesco has no idea whatsoever of how to show off such a thing to its best advantage.
Would you buy a telly that was supposed to be of high resolution that showed you the image on the left or the one on the right?
Guess the standard of resolution I witnessed.
Conclusion? I can only guess that Tesco arrogantly plonked its one HD telly on the shelf and switched it on in the belief that you and I will forgive them the fact that they haven't bothered to link it to an HD receiver's package from Sky or NTL or wherever they come from. Alternatively, HD television is a myth and I wouldn't touch one as my old and gnarled telly is perfectly adequate thanks.
Duncan Williamson
Computernomics
Thanks to blogger.com I just lost a long story of how a magnificient computer engineer solved my problem of a week or more's standing by giving me simple instructions by phone and saving me a long wait but taking no fee for himself.
My desktop now works after having suffered from a virus that was caught as a result of, apparently, the computer being unprotected for a long time. I haven't managed that computer for a while now: the other family members work there as I use my laptop in a different room or office. Well, I have taken over its management again now!
Good to be on the receiving end of such good business practice. I called him back to thank him for that.
So well done to the BEST Computer Doctor of Ock Street Abingdon. I'm putting his email address and telephone numbers here in a disguided way or some clown would spider and spam him no doubt: I'm sure you can work these out
doctor... at ... best ... dot ... co ... dot ... uk
Abingdon 2 2 4 0 0 6
His name's Peter Thompson
Well done Peter!
Duncan Williamson
Budonomics?
Before the World Cup started in Germany a week or so ago, I saw a programme on the television or heard it on the radio and in that programme someone suggested that it was incongruous that Budweiser, an American beer, was the official beer of the tournament.
I don't have an opinion on this subject but Budweiser obviously has since their adverts on the television are a perfect foil for the criticism that it looks as though they were expecting.
What Bud has done is to have two supposed but American sports link men coming on immediately following the first half, for example, all ready with an incisive comment on the game ... but they say such crass things that shows that they know absolutely nothing about the beautiful game.
I think that really is the perfect foil and although I don't drink Bud, I appreciate the way they have managed this situation.
Duncan Williamson
Soccernomics
I have received a few bits of football economics information in my in box over the last 24 hours or so and decided to put a few bits together to help you to look at the football World Cup from the point of view of an economist.
Some hocus pocus, some good stuff. Some simplistic and some more complicated.
Take a look anyway: again, it's on my own web site rather than OxBowBusiness:
www.duncanwil.co.uk and follow the links ... look on the right hand side of the page for the brief introduction first and instructions of where to find the file.
Duncan Williamson
Freakonomics
I finally read it! A book for economists that has taken at least the academic world by storm.
Of course I wish I'd written it or a book as successful but I have to say that it's a flawed book.
Still, it's been adopted as the set text by some Universities and there are student and teacher guides too.
See my review on my own web site to see what I thought of this book.
You'll find
it here! ... just look at the menu on the left ... it's at the top at the moment!
Duncan Williamson
Cheating or research?
Cheating – or research?This is clearly the season for cheating – after all exam papers are apparently for sale in London and elsewhere and the Exam Boards seem to think the problem is local. Apparently there is NO internet in London, NO telephone and NO post so the sale of papers is clearly just restricted to a few schools.
On the subject of cheating I reviewed a book by an American Doctor. The review was about a year ago. In my opinion he had copied chunks of the text from various sites – and I sent him the originals and his copies to prove my case. I also disagreed with much of what he had written.
He has no re-issued the book and I asked him if I could read it on the condition that if I didn’t like it I could have a refund.
His initial friendliness turned to hostility when he realised I was the original reviewer and he flatly denied ever copying anything and I MUST have mixed him up with someone else.
In fact he said:
“
After reading over your comments, I believe you must be talking about someone elseI copied "nothing" from Dr. Mercola”I sent him an email reminding him of his ‘copying’ – from my email:
Let me remind you:
From page 50…Your book:
“
I strongly recommend avoiding sunflower, corn, soy, safflower, canola, or products that contain these oils. Also no hydrogenated or partially hydrogenated fats, no margarine, no vegetable oil, no shortening. These oils are full of omega-6 fats and will only worsen your omega-6 to omega-3 ratio.“from
www.mercola.com:
“I strongly recommend avoiding sunflower, corn, soy, safflower, canola, or products that contain these oils. That is no hydrogenated or partially hydrogenated fats, no margarine, no vegetable oil, no shortening. These oils are chock full of omega-6 fats and will only worsen your omega 6:omega 3 ratio.”
Hmmmm….Your book:“Another way to improve your omega 6:3 ratio is to change the type of meat you are eating. Game meat like venison or other game animals that are raised exclusively on grass type foods are the best meats, but hard to find and generally more expensive than beef. Since nearly all cattle are grain fed before slaughter (even organic meat), eating this meat will typically worsen your omega 6 to omega 3 ratio.“From www.mercola.com:“Another way to improve your omega 6:3 ratio is to change the type of meat you are eating. You could consume more game meat like venison, or other game animals that are raised exclusively on grass type foods. However, these are hard to find and generally more expensive than beef.Since nearly all cattle are grain fed before slaughter, if you eat most traditionally raised beef, it will typically worsen you omega 6:omega 3 ratio.”
Your book:“To get the necessary Omega-3 fatty acids, you should consider eating meat that is allowed to "free-range”, that is grass-fed. Unfortunately, most meat sold in stores, even organic, is not grass fed entirely. What is important to ask is, what have they been fed in the months prior to being processed. Most all cattle are shipped to giant feed lots and fed corn to fatten them up. You will need to call the person who actually grew the beef or sheep, NOT, the store manager to find out the truth. I have researched and tried many fish oil brands. In all confidence, I can say the Carlson's brand is currently the most superior available.“To get the necessary Omega-3 fatty acids, you should consider eating meat that is allowed to "free-range", or in the case of cattle, to be grass-fed. Unfortunately, you cannot buy this grass-fed beef at your local grocery store.You must also be careful as many stores will advertise grass-fed beef but it really isn't. They do this as ALL cattle are grass fed, but the key is what they are fed the months prior to being processed.Most all cattle are shipped to giant feed lots and fed corn to fatten them up. You will need to call the person who actually grew the beef, NOT the store manager, to find out the truth.”
Source: www.mercola.comAnd“I have researched and tried many fish oil brands; in all confidence, I can say the
Carlson's brand we offer is currently the most superior available.”
Source:
www.mercola.com“The main distinction between cod liver oil and fish oil is that cod liver oil is very high in vitamin D. In warm weather, the sunshine produces high and usually sufficient levels of vitamin D without any supplementation necessary. Consequently, consuming cod liver oil in the warm weather months or climates in not recommended as this can result in an excess of vitamin D in your system and consequential complications. Conversely, in cool weather, your body needs more vitamin D, and so it is recommended that you take cod liver oil versus fish oil in cool weather months or climates.A general rule is, take cod liver oil from autumn to early spring, and fish oil from late spring through the end of summer. Adjust accordingly the closer or farther from the equator you live”source:
http://www.nutrasanus.com/cod-liver-oil.htmlyour book:
“The main difference between cod liver oil and fish oil is that cod liver oil is high in vitamin D. In warm weather, the sunshine produces high and usually sufficient levels of vitamin D without any supplementation necessary. I do not recommend consuming cod liver oil in the warm weather months or climates, as this can result in an excess of vitamin D in your system and consequential complications. Conversely, in cool weather, your body needs more vitamin D, and so I recommend cod liver oil versus fish oil in cool weather months or climates.
A general rule is, take cod liver oil from autumn to early spring, and fish oil from late spring through the end of summer. Adjust accordingly the closer or farther from the equator you live.“
page 51“Unlike nearly all farmed salmon, Alaskan Sockeye salmon, for example, grow free of antibiotics, pesticides, synthetic coloring agents, growth hormones and GMOs.”
Source:
http://www2.oprah.com/presents/2005/young/life/life_tips_109.jhtmlYour book:
Unlike nearly all farmed salmon, Alaskan Sockeye grow free of antibiotics, pesticides, synthetic coloring agents, growth hormones and GMOs.
Page 130Your book:“Waist Circumference - Health Risks A high waist circumference is associated with an increased risk for type 2 diabetes, dyslipidemia, hypertension, and CVD in patients with a BMI in a range between 25 and 34.9. Monitoring changes in waist circumference over time may be helpful, in addition to measuring BMI, since it can provide an estimate of increased abdominal fat even in the absence of a change in BMI. Furthermore, in obese patients with metabolic complications, changes in waist circumference are useful predictors of changes in CVD risk factors.““A high waist circumference is associated with an increased risk for type 2 diabetes, dyslipidemia, hypertension, and CVD in patients with a BMI in a range between 25 and 34.9 kg/m.2 82 Monitoring changes in waist circumference over time may be helpful, in addition to measuring BMI, since it can provide an estimate of increased abdominal fat even in the absence of a change in BMI. Furthermore, in obese patients with metabolic complications, changes in waist circumference are useful predictors of changes in CVD risk factors. (image placeholder)
537 The waist circumference at which there is an increased relative risk is defined as follows:”
source:
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/bv.fcgi?rid=obesity.section.230also from the same site:
“
According to waist circumference. Although waist circumference and BMI are interrelated, waist circumference provides an independent prediction of risk over and above that of BMI. Waist circumference measurement is particularly useful in patients who are categorized as normal or overweight on the BMI scale. At BMIs ≥ 35, waist circumference has little added predictive power of disease risk beyond that of BMI. It is therefore not necessary to measure waist circumference in individuals with BMIs ≥ 35”
and in your book:
Waist circumference measurement is particularly useful in patients who are categorized as overweight on the BMI scale, although increased waist circumference can also be a marker for increased risk even in persons of normal weight. However, for someone with a BMI of 35 or over (obese), waist circumference has little added predictive power of disease risk beyond that of BMI. It is therefore not necessary to measure waist circumference in individuals with BMIs of 35 or over.His response?
To be quite honest, I don't have the time to go back and forth. Just to make sure you see that you are wrong in your assessment, look over the attachment and see my actual wording in red. I think you need to review what plagiarism is. Chris, even with you overlooking my actual writing, I am surprised that you have the time to tear my book apart. Did you take the time to put into action what I have written I really hope that you didn't order my book last year to copy or at least rob me of my book.That is problem with the Internet and it is people who print a book, don'tapply what they read and ask for their money back. If you really applied the concepts in my book instead of spending time to tear my book apart, then I would respect your opinion. But, anyway, please don't take the time to reply.Sorry for blunt reply. I simply have my plate full and question your true intent”Ho hum….
Chris Sivewright
Uploading pics to your Blog
So you've got a Blogger.com account and you'd like to add some photographs but you don't know how.
Well, here's how to do that.
Start by creating a new blog topic and type what you want to type and copy what you want to copy.
When you are ready to put in a picture, click on the icon that looks like this:
When you hover over the picture icon it will say "Add Image" ... that's a big clue.
It will now ask you to upload your image ... like this:
Click on browse and then go to where on your hard drive the picture is or add the URL to link to the web address where you keep the picture.
You are faced with a few layout options, as you can see. Click the one you want ... beware because what you click is what you get. Best to select None unless you want to picture top left with word wrapping and so on.
You are also faced with a size option: your choice, so choose as you wish.
Click to upload the picture and wait a while: the bigger the pic, the bigger the wait.
Then click Done when it's finished whirring and clicking.
It will place a long string of html code in your message and you won't see the pic just yet ... unfortunately that layout idea doesn't work on my computer and the chances are that it simply puts it in the top left of your message. If you don't want it there cut and paste all of that html code to where you want it! That's how my pics are part way down this message. Tacky I know but that's the way it works for me at the moment. Sorry.
Add another pic in exactly the same way.
Let me know if that doesn't work for you and I'll try to work out why.
Duncan Williamson
Marks and Spencer ... again
There was a good overview analysis of the last 15 years or so of Marks and Spencer on Channel Five last night and I will be using part of what they talked about to update my recent M&S article.
I've done it ...
go here which takes you directly to the PDF file itself.
Riveting stuff.
Duncan Williamson
Google Analytics
Google is getting better and better all of the time. Unlike other web based companies, Google makes shed loads of money from its clients but then gives a load of it away to the likes of you and me.
At the moment, I use
gmail: email account
picasa2: phot editor
analytics: web site visitor analysis
Blogger: this!!!
There are many more resources that they offer but that I don't use all of the time.
Why am I telling you this? Well, I have just been invited to sign up for their Analytics resources and within just 12 hours I have to say that I am bowled over by it. Why amd I telling you that? Well, as someone interested in business and management you must be interested in data analysis ... I will share what I get from time to time.
At the moment I am analysing
www.duncanwil.co.uk and have just applied for
www.oxbow.org.uk analysis too. The depth and breadth of the analysis you can do is phenomenol and both practitioners and students of marketing, production, finance and accounting will appreciate it.
Trust me!
Duncan Williamson
Starting to deliver
Starting to deliver.
A long blog covering advertising…and planning.
In early October 2005, British Airways announced they had hired Bartle Bogle Hegarty for global creative chores on its global ad account.
"We have enjoyed a long and successful relationship with M&C Saatchi, which has produced many memorable campaigns for us over the years," said Martin George, the airline's commercial director, in a statement. "However, we must look to the future now and adapt to the changing environment in which we operate and the needs of our business."
He said BBH "was chosen for the outstanding insight, creative ability and proven track record of delivering effective advertising it demonstrated in the pitch process.”
BB&H formally commenced their ‘creative chores’ on November 15th last year.
An interesting company, BB&H…
1. Renowned for its creativity it has an approach to developing international campaigns that is virtually unique.
2. Founded in 1982, BBH has always based its structures and processes around one primary objective: to ensure the very best and strongest creative ideas for their clients.
3. "Advertising is the product of a great brief and a great creative team", says Chief Executive and London Chairman, Nigel Bogle. "Anything you add to that should only be there to help the development of the work; yet too often agency structures are allowed to get in the way".
4. Clients are centralising all aspects of their business to a far greater degree than in previous years, and consumers are also becoming increasingly 'global' - particularly with regard to their media consumption." We aren't suggesting that the French, the English and the Germans have suddenly become the same - that would be ludicrous", Bogle continues, "Their historic cultures will hopefully always preserve essential differences. However, as consumers their behaviour is rarely instructed by historic culture and is far more dictated by contemporary culture: a culture formed in no small part by common media influences. So, no matter how different people may be in other respects, consumers of a brand in Madrid or Moscow are far more similar to each other than they are different. We see it as our role to play to those similarities".
5. BBH has had considerable success with this philosophy. Many large international accounts have taken advantage of its centralised approach across Europe and, more recently, clients in Asia Pacific and the States have been able to benefit from the same unusual philosophy from BBH offices in Singapore and New York.
6. BBH won the Queen's Award for Export in 1996 and 1997 - the only ad agency ever to achieve this - and has continually shown to a conservative advertising world that international, unifying advertising solutions are frequently best produced in one place.
7. For more information please contact Martin Smith, Deputy Chairman, on 020 7453 4109 or alternatively by e-mail: martins@bbh.co.uk.
8.. Check out their website: http://www.bbh.co.uk/ They even have a Students section!
(Source for most of the above: http://www.sovereign-publications.com/bartle.htm)
BB&H are now starting to deliver.
Their advertisement for BA is entitled ‘Clouds’.
“Clouds is a new spot for British Airways. Created by Ed Edwards and Dave Masterman at BBH, and directed by Daniel Kleinman for Kleinman Productions, the spot is currently appearing in 30 and 40 second versions in markets that include the UK, the Middle East and Africa. Framestore CFC created the spot's ethereal and lovely visual effects.
Clouds emphasises both the value and the customer care offered by BA, and it does this by showing the pleasure and wonder still inherent in the miracle of flight - pleasures available to the carefree, pampered BA customer. The spot starts with establishing shots of a BA jet speeding through and above a sea of clouds. The clouds themselves are then transformed, becoming a school of dolphins that frolic around the plane. We then cut to a young child gazing out of the windows of the plane, and realize that we are seeing the clouds through his eyes. "We believe your holiday should start before you arrive. You're our guest," says the voiceover, going on to enumerate the ways that BA make this happen, while we go deeper into the boy's fantasy, with the cloud-dolphins 'submerging' into a series of 'aerial underwater' shots. The spot concludes with a serene shot of the plane heading into a sunset.”
Source: http://features.cgsociety.org/story_custom.php?story_id=3575 – go look at the site …
This is all very well – but what about the music?
The music chosen is a cover version of John Denver’s ‘I’m Leaving on a Jet Plane’.
“Leaving on a Jet Plane?” I hear you say…”But don’t the lyrics continue with ‘Don’t know when I’ll be back again…’ “
Indeed they do, here are the lyrics:
All my bags are packed
Im ready to go
Im standin here outside your door
I hate to wake you up to say goodbye
But the dawn is breakin
Its early morn
The taxis waitin
Hes blowin his horn
Already Im so lonesome
I could die
So kiss me and smile for me
Tell me that youll wait for me
Hold me like youll never let me go
cause Im leavin on a jet plane
Dont know when Ill be back again
Oh babe, I hate to go
Theres so many times Ive let you down
So many times Ive played around
I tell you now, they dont mean a thing
Evry place I go, Ill think of you
Evry song I sing, Ill sing for you
When I come back, Ill bring your wedding ring
So kiss me and smile for me
Tell me that youll wait for me
Hold me like youll never let me go
cause Im leavin on a jet plane
Dont know when Ill be back again
Oh babe, I hate to go
Now the time has come to leave you
One more time
Let me kiss you
Then close your eyes
Ill be on my way
Dream about the days to come
When I wont have to leave alone
About the times, I wont have to say
Oh, kiss me and smile for me
Tell me that youll wait for me
Hold me like youll never let me go
cause Im leavin on a jet plane
Dont know when Ill be back again
Oh babe, I hate to go
But, Im leavin on a jet plane
Dont know when Ill be back again
Oh babe, I hate to go.
Does this song fill you with joy? Does it make you want to travel? Does it convey happiness?
“Already I’m so lonesome I could die …don’t know when I’ll be back again, Oh babe I hate to go…”
According to CNN:
“Authorities confirmed Monday that singer John Denver, 53, died at the controls of a light plane which crashed Sunday off the coast of California. ….Teri Martell, whose sister Annie was Denver's first wife, told CNN by phone from her home in Minnesota that, "Denver was a very experienced pilot," and that Annie was told he was practicing taking off and landing when the accident occurred Sunday shortly after 5 p.m.. .The plane, made of fiberglass with a single engine and two seats, was considered an "experimental" aircraft, and was possibly home-built, said Pacific Grove police Lt. Carl Miller. It took off from Monterey Airport shortly after 5 p.m., with the first reports of a crash at 5:27 p.m. Its destination was unknown. The plane was flying about 500 feet in the air "when it just sort of dropped unexpectedly into the ocean," Miller said. "When it hit the water it broke into numerous parts." The plane crashed about 100 yards off rocky shoreline in the bay just north of Monterey, and near a jut in the land known as Lover's Point. “
Source: http://www.cnn.com/US/9710/13/denver.update/
So we have here an Advertising Agency that is unique:
“The advertising agency world frequently talks about 'innovation'; however, as any member of the industry will tell you, it is often no less conservative than any other industry. So, when you come across unusual agencies and people with a genuine point of difference, they are worth checking out.
Bartle Bogle Hegarty is one of those unusual agencies. Renowned for its creativity - it has consistently outflanked its rivals at Cannes and other festivals - it has an approach to developing international campaigns that is virtually unique.”
This ‘uniqueness’ and ‘creativity’ has managed to link the current advertising campaign for BA with a sad song about departure, written by a singer who subsequently died in a plane crash!
That’s careful planning!
Chris Sivewright
The British way of doing things
The British way of doing things.
On June 3rd the Daily Mirror ran a story about exam papers being leaked.
“TWO A-level exam papers due to be sat next week have been obtained by the Daily Mirror. Students are believed to be buying the stolen questions then selling them on.Subjects affected include A-level maths, economics, business studies, biology and chemistry set by exam boards AQA and Ed-Excel.”The response from the AQA was:
“ John Mitchell, of AQA, said: "This is a very serious matter because this is a major national exam. We are carrying out an investigation and we have been interviewing a number of students. We want to make sure if anybody had unfair access to these question papers they do not profit by it."The Business Studies paper is taking place as I write this.
I wondered whether the Exam Boards had issued new papers. I rang a centre and they had not received any.
I rang AQA and spoke to John Mitchell and he said that the AQA ‘were taking every possible step…’ I asked him if replacement papers had been sent down and he said that ‘the Exam Board were taking every possible step’.
This means either Exam Centres I spoke to have surprisingly not received extra copies that mysteriously were sent to other centres (unlikely) OR papers were not sent out. I pointed out to John Mitchell that the papers if genuine would be passed around, sold on the internet, posted in chat rooms etc etc I myself know several students in Oxford who are very interested in buying these questions – as I am too. If I get them they’re going straight on to the internet and will be told to everyone possible.
It’s important to have a level playing field.
John Mitchell says the papers seen by Daily Mirror are genuine.
So there are presumably several papers for several subjects now circulating.
Time to talk to the newspapers.
The Sun, Mirror and Guardian and Telegraph were VERY interested. The Times, not so.
Maybe it’s not the British way of doing things, to expose incompetence when we see it but instead to hide it all away and say ‘just a few will be affected’.
Must go now as there are pigs flying past the window….
Chris Sivewright
Biodegradable bottle and charity donations to boot
How about this, from James Walker?
Belu, a London-based mineral water company which donates its profits to third world water projects, has developed a method of producing plastic bottles using a 100% renewable resource:
corn.
The 'Bio bottle' can be composted back to soil in 12 weeks, the firm says. That's about one million years quicker than the way traditional bottles degrade!
"The potential for helping the planet is enormous," said Mai Simonsen, one of the founding members of Belu. "This can dramatically reduce the amount of rubbish going into landfills and gives everyone an easy way to help protect the environment."
While the product has been welcomed by environmental groups, some activists are questioning whether we need to be buying so many products in the first place.
The Bio-bottles are now available in selected Waitrose stores and will reach the shelves of most major UK supermarkets in the coming months.
That is good news isn't it?
Source of storyTake a look at the
Belu web site too: you'll read the story of Belu, its water and its bottles in an easy to read format. For Belu prices or to place an order, email
sales@belu.org, or call 0870-240-6121. OxBowBusiness provides this information without recommendation and for no reward. We bring you the information so that you can invetigate and decide. If you do buy and try, why not write and tell us all about it? There's also a press pack you can download ... it's 24Mb in size, however!
Here's what to look for in the supermarket: looks as if at least some Waitrose shops are stocking it.
Duncan Williamson
From Coal to Oil
Sometimes something comes along that widens my eyes and I feel the need to share it. I just received the latest edition of Global Watch from the dTI and there's an article in there on how the Australians are converting cola into gas.
Whoa! Nothing new there, laddie, I can hear some of you crying. Wait a minute, I reply, have you seen this?
They are doing this in situ: in the mine itself. The good news here is that it costs a lot less in terms of capital invesment and that helps to make production costs a lot lower.
Some figures for you:
Linc [Energy] has given indicative production costs for syngas and diesel using its technology of 27 pence per gigajoule and £13.30 per barrel respectively. If these figures are achieved the technology could revitalise the coal industry around the world. (Andrew King, DTI International Technology Promoter)
Having learned that, I then took a bit of a look around the internet to learn a bit more about this technology and found the following snippets.
With over 270 billion tons of proven reserves, the United States is the Saudi Arabia of coal. If the United States converts just 5 percent of its estimated recoverable coal reserves, Syntroleum estimates it would be equivalent to the 29 billion barrels of proven oil reserves in the United States.
Oil and Gas OnlineIn both sources so far, the name Fischer-Tropsch is important: this is the name of the process of transforming solids to gases. You might be surprised to learn that this process is not new as it traces its origins to the late nineteenth century and claims that its hay days were from the 1920s to the 1950s.
What are the market drivers to the conversion of coal into oil: maybe obvious to some of us but here are a few ideas to help you along:
• 1920s to 1950s
- Shift from coal economy to oil economy
- Economic security
- Military aspirations
• 1970s to 1980s
- Oil shortages
- Energy independence for South Africa
• 1990s to 2000s
- Requirement for cleaner fuels
- Abundance of "stranded gas"
Fischer-Tropsch Archive Fischer-Tropsch Synthesis took its first serious place in industry in 1935 at Ruhrchemie in Oberhausen, now the Ruhrchemie site of the Celanese AG chemical company. By the beginning of the 1940s, some 600,000 tonnes of liquid hydrocarbons were produced per year in German facilities, made from coal using Fischer-Tropsch Synthesis.
China has major oil and gas needs, not only because it is such a massive country but also because it realizes that self sufficiency would be a smart move. Now I’m not suggesting that self sufficiency is its aim or is possible for China but it is looking seriously at coal liquefaction, as the following extract shows.
Recently China has shown a strong interest in coal liquefaction and is investing billions of dollars into developing production facilities. Shenhua Group, one of China's largest coal companies is building a US$3.3 billion DCL project. The process was designed by and licensed from Hydrocarbon Technologies, Inc.(HTI). Shenhua has almost completed the construction of the Inner Mongolia coal liquefaction project's infrastructure. Operations of its first production line are expected to commence by 2007. The plant will produce 1 million tons of gasoline and diesel fuel a year. It is expected to process 15 million tons of coal to produce 5 million tons of oil products with four more production lines becoming operational by 2008. Shenhua is planning a second phase to the project with a total investment of 60 billion yuan (US$7.3 billion). (Tian, China Daily, 3/12/04), Coal to Clean Fuel, Fletcher, et al, Sept 2003)
The Energy BlogChina is reported to harbour around 20 billion tons of proven coal reserves and using such techniques as we are talking about here it could convert that to 10 billion tons of oil and related products.
There you are, some food for thought. The Fischer-Tropsch Archive has some good historical information, data and presentations and the internet is littered with information on this topic too.
Add this to any discussion you might care to hold on Peak Oil and its consequences.
Duncan Williamson
Leadership
We all know the people on the television, in the newspapers and so on who are charismatic and successful. How about this though?
Put away your charisma: the best leaders are quiet, humble and decidedly unglamorous.Joseph Badaracco provides us with that insight. He also says that we don't need another [management] hero. He goes on to say that
'Your firm's seemingly ordinary, quiet leaders, the people working inconspicuously, deep within the organisation, achieve extraordinary results ... They:
buy time to make key decisions
patiently pick their battles
bend rules
master the art of compromise
The sum of their many small deeds is a "thousand times stronger than the acts of those who receive wide public recognition".'See the article We don't need another hero in the September 2001 edition of the Harvard Business Review for more from Badaracco.
Duncan Williamson
